中国碳酸锂经济安全预警研究

Economic Security Warning of Lithium Carbonate in China

中文关键词:  锂资源  经济安全  预警  GM（1,1）模型  BP神经网络

英文关键词:Lithium resources  Economic security  Early warning  GM (1,1) model  BP neural network

中文摘要:

      为深入研究锂资源经济安全，本文从资源禀赋、进口依赖、获取成本和地缘政治四个维度出发，构建了中国锂资源经济安全评价指标体系，运用常权和变权模型评估了2009—2020年中国锂资源经济安全状况，采用GM（1,1）模型及BP神经网络模型对2021—2035年中国锂资源经济安全进行预警研究。结果表明：①进口集中度、对外依存度及运输风险是影响锂资源经济安全的主要因素；②2009—2020年中国锂资源经济安全总体呈下降趋势，安全等级由黄色—基本安全等级波动下降至橙色—不安全等级，资源禀赋和进口依赖是导致资源安全等级较低的主要原因；③2021—2035年中国锂资源经济安全评分不断下降，除2021年和2026年处于黄色—基本安全等级外，其余年份均处于橙色—不安全等级。

英文摘要:

      In order to further study the economic security of lithium resources, an evaluation index system was constructed for the economic security of lithium resources in China from four dimensions: resource endowment, import dependence, acquisition cost and geopolitics. The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the economic security of lithium resources in China from 2009 to 2020. The GM (1,1) model and BP neural network model were used to study the economic security of lithium resources in China from 2021-2035. The results show that: (1) Import concentration, external dependence and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the economic security of lithium resources; (2) From 2009 to 2020, the economic safety of lithium resources in China showed a downward trend, and the safety level fluctuated from yellow - basic safety level to orange - unsafe level,The resource endowment the import dependence are the main reasons for the low level of resource security; (3) From 2020 to 2035, the economic security score of China"s lithium resources continued to decline. Except for 2021 and 2026, which were in the yellow -- basic safety level, the rest of the years were in the orange -- unsafe level.