格尔木河流域水文气象要素变化特征及其遥相关分析

Characteristics of Changs in Hydrometeorological Elements of the Golmud River Basin and Their Teleconnection Analysis

中文关键词:  地表径流  趋势分析  突变分析  遥相关分析  气候指标

英文关键词:Surfacerunoff  Trendanalysis  Abruptchange  Remotecorrelationanalysis  Climateindex

中文摘要:

      格尔木河是青藏高原柴达木盆地的主要河流之一，为下游城市和察尔汗盐湖提供了重要的水资源，分析其水文气象要素变化趋势及特征对当地水资源开发利用和区域发展具有重要意义。为探究格尔木河流域水文气象要素的变化特征，基于格尔木河 1959年至 2017年期间的年平均径流、降雨和温度资料，采用线性趋势估计法、累计距平法以及滑动移除近似熵等方法进行研究，并基于小波分析开展与大尺度气候指标间的遥相关分析。趋势分析结果表明，格尔木河流域径流和温度具有显著的增大趋势，多年平均径流为 28.5m3/s，线性拟合结果为: y=0.3x-567.99，相关系数为 0.66；降雨序列总体趋势较为平稳，变化趋势不明显；温度每十年的升温幅度为 0.59℃，约为全球平均升温幅度的两倍。累计距平法分析得出径流和降雨均在 2005年发生变化，二者的累积距平曲线由持续下降转变为快速上升。结合 MC-ApEn方法和滑动 T检验法进行突变分析结果表明径流和温度均在 1983年附近发生突变，降雨突变信息不具有显著性。径流、降雨和温度之间在 1967年和 2010年分别存在 4年和 2年的高频周期信号，且径流与降雨的相关程度最大。遥相关分析结果表明流域降雨与五个指数的相关程度明显高于径流和温度，且 PDO与降雨最相关， DMI通过干扰西南暖湿气流会对径流产生影响， AO与气温显示出较强信号。

英文摘要:

      TheGolmudRiverisoneofthemainriversintheQaidamBasinontheQinghai-XizangPlateau， providingimportant water resources for downstream cities and the Qarhan Salt Lake.Analyzing the chang-ing trends and characteristics of its hydrometeorological elements is of great significance to the develop-ment and utilization of local water resources and regional development. In order to explore the variation characteristicsofhydrometeorologicalelementsintheGolmudRiverBasin，thispaperuseslineartrendesti-mation method，cumulative distance method and sliding removal approximate entropy based on the annual average runoff，rainfall and temperature data of the Golmud River from 1959 to 2017，and carries out re-mote correlation analysis with large-scale climate indicators based on wavelet analysis.Trend analysis re-sults show that runoff and temperature have a significant increasing trend.The average annual runoff was 28.5 m3/s，and the linear fitting results were:y=0.3x-567.99，and the correlation coefficient was 0.66；the overall trend of rainfall series was relatively stable，and the change trend was not obvious；the temperature increaseamplitudeperdecadewas0.59℃，whichwasabouttwicetheglobalaveragewarming.Thecumula-tiveanomalymethodanalysisshows thatboth runoff and rainfallhavechangedin2005，andthe cumulative anomaly curves ofthe two have changedfrom acontinuous decline to arapidincrease.The results of muta-tion analysis combined with MC-ApEn method and sliding t test showed that both runoff and temperature abruptly occurred around 1983，and the rainfall mutation information was not significant. In 1967 and 2010，there were 4-year and 2-year high-frequency periodic signals between runoff，rainfall and tempera-ture，respectively，and the correlation between runoff and rainfall was the greatest. The results of telecon-nection analysis show that the correlation between rainfall and the five indices in the basin is significantly higher than that of runoff and temperature，andPDOis most correlated with rainfall. DMI affects runoffby interferingwithsouthwestwarmandhumidairflow，andAOandtemperatureshowstrongsignals.