青藏高原东北部60多年来的气候暖湿化:来自德令哈水文气候的记录
Hydroclimatic record of Delingha indicates warmer and humid climate on the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
投稿时间:2023-04-15  修订日期:2023-11-02
DOI:
中文关键词:  柴达木盆地  青藏高原东北部  气温  降水  气候变化
英文关键词:Qaidam Basin  northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau  temperature  precipitation  climate change
基金项目:
作者单位邮编
曾方明* 中国科学院青海盐湖研究所 中国科学院盐湖资源综合高效利用重点实验室/青海省盐湖地质与环境重点实验室 810008
张西营 中国科学院青海盐湖研究所 中国科学院盐湖资源综合高效利用重点实验室/青海省盐湖地质与环境重点实验室 
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中文摘要:
      柴达木盆地水文气候的变化影响该区生态文明建设及经济社会发展。本次研究采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析方法对德令哈60多年来的气象和水文数据进行分析。结果显示德令哈的气温和降水均呈显著的上升趋势,1956-2022年升温速率为0.45 ℃/10a,1956-2018年降水增加速率为26.6 mm/10a。冬季气温升高最快,达0.75 ℃/10a;夏季降水增加最多,为17.1 mm/10a。德令哈水文站的平均流量也呈显著增加趋势,1960-2020年增加速率为1.03 m3/s/10a;夏季增加速率最快,为2.89 m3/s/10a。平均流量主要受控于降水量,气温对其影响次之。Mann-Kendall检验显示平均流量在2009年发生突变。尽管1973-1980年的蒸发量处于高值,但1956-2003年的蒸发量变化总体呈下降趋势,平均风速很可能是影响蒸发量的主要因素。湿润指数(降水量/蒸发量)呈升高趋势,表明德令哈气候近60年来朝湿润化方向发展。托素湖、尕海、青海湖湖面上涨及柴达木盆地植被覆盖度增加进一步印证了青藏高原东北部气候的暖湿化特征。
英文摘要:
      The variation of hydroclimate in the Qaidam Basin is closely related to the ecological construction and economic development of the region. We analyzed meteorological and hydrological data in Delingha and found that both temperature and precipitation showed a significant upward trend. The warming rate from 1956 to 2022 was 0.45 ℃/10a, and the increase rate of precipitation from 1956 to 2018 was 26.6 mm/10a. Over the past 60 years, winter temperatures have risen the fastest, reaching 0.75 ℃/10a; summer precipitation increased the most, at 17.1 mm/10a. The average discharge of Delingha hydrological station also showed a significant increasing trend, with an increase rate of 1.03 m3/s/10a from 1960 to 2020; the fastest increase rate in summer was 2.89 m3/s/10a. The average discharge is mainly controlled by precipitation, followed by the impact of temperature. The Mann-Kendall test showed that the average discharge experienced a mutation point in 2009. Although the evaporation from 1973 to 1980 was at a high value, the evaporation from 1956 to 2003 showed a downward trend in general, and the average wind speed and sunshine hours were the main factors affecting evaporation. The aridity index (precipitation/evaporation) showed an upward trend, indicating that the climate in Delingha is getting humid. The rising areas of Gahai Lake, Tuosu Lake, and Qinghai Lake, as well as the increase in vegetation coverage in the Qaidam Basin, further confirm the warming and humid characteristics of the climate on the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. It is worth paying attention to how the warmer and humid climate on the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will further affect the ecological environment evolution of the region.
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