中国钾盐资源需求预测及发展远景分析

Chinese Potash Resources Demand:A Forecast Analysis

中文关键词:  钾盐资源  钾肥需求  预测分析  发展远景

英文关键词:Potash resources  Potash demand  Predictive analysis  Development vision 

中文摘要:

      钾盐主要用于生产钾肥。中国是一个农业大国,但耕地大范围缺钾,严重影响到国家粮食安全及人们的生存发展。概述了当前世界及国内钾盐资源与生产现状,通过借鉴发达国家钾盐消费轨迹,预测了中国未来的钾肥需求。结果表明,中国钾盐消费还处于上升阶期,预计钾肥需求可能在2022~2026年达到峰值,届时钾肥需求将达到1000×10⁴~1100×10⁴t(折K₂O)水平。建议钾盐发展与国家农业产业结构调整相适应,根据国家提出的未来化肥用量零增长的目标,优化钾肥品种结构,走差异化道路,提高钾肥利用率,促进产业转型升级,保障工业产品需求和国家粮食安全。

英文摘要:

      :Potash is mainly used in the production of potash fertilizer. China is a large agricultural country, while the arable land lacks of potassium universally which affecting national food security and populace survival and development. This author summarizes the current situation, the domestic production of potash fertilizer and current world potash consumption in developed countries, and forecasts the demand in future China. The results show that China’s potash consumption is still in the stage of the rise which may get a peak consumption around 2022-2026 with the total potash demand about 1×10⁷ to 1.1×10⁷ tons (K₂O) per year. The author recommends that potash development and national agricultural structure adjustment should be interconnected, and all the potash manufacturers should confront with the national goal of keeping the chemical fertilizer consumpation increasing rate as zero, optimize the potash fertilizer varieties in different ways, enhance the utilization efficiency of potash, restructure and upgrade the potash industry to meet the demands from the national industry and food security.