中国碳酸锂经济安全预警研究

Economic Security Warning of Lithium Carbonate in China

中文关键词:  碳酸锂  经济安全  预警  GM(1，1)模型  BP神经网络

英文关键词:Lithiumcarbonate  Economicsecurity  Earlywarning  GM(1,1)model  BPneuralnetwork

中文摘要:

      为深入研究碳酸锂经济安全，文章从资源禀赋、进口依赖、获取成本和地缘政治四个维度出发，构建了中国碳酸锂经济安全评价指标体系，运用常权和变权模型评估了 2009—2020年中国碳酸锂经济安全状况，采用 GM(1，1)模型及 BP神经网络模型对 2021—2035年中国碳酸锂经济安全进行预警研究。结果表明: 1.进口集中度、对外依存度及运输风险是影响碳酸锂经济安全的主要因素； 2.2009—2020年中国碳酸锂经济安全总体呈下降趋势，安全等级由黄色—基本安全等级波动下降至橙色—不安全等级，资源禀赋和进口依赖是导致碳酸锂安全等级较低的主要原因； 3.2021— 2035年中国碳酸锂经济安全评分不断下降，除 2021年和 2026年处于黄色—基本安全等级外，其余年份均处于橙色—不安全等级。

英文摘要:

      In order to further study the economic security of lithium carbonate, an evaluation index system wasconstructedfortheeconomicsecurity oflithium carbonatein Chinafromfourdimensions:resourceen-dowment，import dependence, acquisition cost and geopolitics. The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the economic security of lithium carbonate in China from 2009 to 2020. The GM(1，1)modelandBPneuralnetworkmodelwereusedtostudytheeconomicsecurityoflithiumcarbon-ate in China from 2021 to 2035.The results show that:(1)Import concentration，externaldependence and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the economic security of lithium carbonate；(2)From 2009 to 2020，the economic safety oflithium carbonate in China showed adownward trend, and the safety level fluctuated from yellow-basic safety level to orange-unsafe level,The resource endowment the import dependence are the main reasons for the low level of resource security；(3)From 2020 to 2035，the eco-nomic security score of China's lithium carbonate continued to decline. Except for 2021 and 2026，which wereintheyellow-basicsafetylevel，therestoftheyearswereintheorange-unsafelevel.